The amount of true foreign aid (i.e., non-military development support) given by the United States is now down to about one tenth of one percent of our GNP (0.13% according to one account). At such levels there is a complete mismatch between resources and needs, so one might well use the idea of triage to answer the question about how such limited resources might be deployed. This was done at this year’s Copenhagen Consensus Conference by some esteemed economists. They deployed an imaginary budget of $50 Billion in the following way: $27 Billion for fighting AIDS; $13B for fighting malaria; and $12B for improving nutrition. Finally they proposed an initiative to reform international trade, which had no monetary impact. The astute will observe first of all that they over-committed their budget by 4%, but it would be frivolous to quibble, since nothing of magnitude is going to be available near term in any event. So it is far more important to contemplate that if $27B is the realistic cost of tackling AIDS with prospects of success, then what does the absence of such funds imply? The problem here is in our face more even than global warming, or the threat of international scourges by opportunistic diseases. This is here and now, with Asia, including India, China, and Russia at the threshold of a tipping point into runaway conditions. In Africa, of course, we are already at the point where AIDS is eating away at the core of societies that were at best functioning marginally before.
A couple of years ago, President Bush went to Africa to announce a five-year $15B plan to fight AIDS. Iraq got in the way. An economist would analyze this in terms of opportunity cost—in this case the opportunity to avoid future costs. The commitment to Iraq delayed a commitment to AIDS, under conditions where such delay has grave and near-term consequences. Continue reading “Triage”